End of 'driving boom' spurs talk of reshaping state transportation plans

Source: The Baltimore SunAug.新蒲崗迷你倉 29--Young professionals and other commuters in Maryland and around the country are spending less time behind the wheel than in past years, according to a new study by the U.S. PIRG Education Fund -- leading some to call for a greater emphasis on mass transit, biking and other modes of travel at the state level.The findings were released Thursday, just as state officials are preparing to release a new, six-year transportation plan next week. The plan is likely to be one of the state's most ambitious in years, thanks to transportation revenue from the state's increased gas tax.The U.S. PIRG study suggests the downward trend in driving began on a national level prior to the economic recession and is present in a broad spectrum of states, including those least damaged by the downturn. Joanna Guy, program associate with Maryland PIRG Foundation, said the findings suggest the trend is linked not just to the economy but also to a lifestyle change among younger Americans, and should therefore be a factor in how state officials decide future transportation policy."It's time for policy makers to wake up and realize the driving boom is over," Guy said in a statement. "We need to reconsider expensive highway expansions and focus on alternatives such as public transit and biking -- which people increasingly use to get around."State leaders say changing demographics and travel trends are always considered when deciding policy, and that the state is already working toward bolstering mass transit options in population centers. Transportation and smart growth experts say the state, like many others, could be doing more.Since 2007, when the miles traveled by Maryland drivers peaked, miles driven per person in the state have decreased by 4.1 percent, the PIRG study found. Driving mileage per person has also declined in 45 other states in the same time period, including in many states where unemployment grew more slowly than the national average.According to the State Highway Administration, overall travel on the state's roads and highways has stalled in recent years after decades of growth following World War II.Administration officials say overall vehicle miles on state roads jumped rapidly between 1980, when there were 28.5 billion miles traveled, to 2007, when there were 56.8 billion miles traveled. But suddenly, in 2008, that number dropped for the first time in decades, to 56.1 billion. It has fluctuated since, and now stands at 56.4 billion.Between 1980 and 2005, vehicle miles traveled increased by an average of about 15 percent every 5 years. Between 2005 and 2010, it decreased by 0.7 percent, and 2012 numbers remained below those in 2005.The leveling off of driving miles on the state's roadways occurred even as the state's population continued to expand, including by nearly 100,000 residents between 2010 and 2012 alone, according to U.S. Census estimates.Annual vehicle miles traveled per capita in 2011 was 9,646 in the state, putting Maryland in the middle of the pack in terms of state averages, according to the U.S. PIRG study. Maryland drivers drove less than drivers in all other "South Atlantic" states, a category that the study included Maryland in, but they drove more than those in the average Northeast state.Marylanders drove fewer miles per capita than residents in the North Central, South Gulf and Western regions of the country, as well.Between 2005 and 2011, Virginia saw a 7 percent decrease in vehicle miles traveled, while Washington saw a 14.4 percent decrease.The study says gas prices, demographic shifts, changes in technology and other factors have all contributed to the declines. Teenage Americans are getting drivers' licenses at lower rates, young adults are flocking to urban centers and more people than ever are working from home.Baby boomers are also retiring, putting decades of commuting behind them."Given these trends, we need to press the reset button on our transportation policy," Guy said. "Just because past transportation investments overwhelmingly went to highway construction, doesn't mean that continues to be the right choice for Maryland's future."Earlier this year, the Maryland General Assembly passed a gas tax increase pushed by Gov. Martin O'Malley that will raise costs to motorists and provide hundreds of millions of dollars a year for transportation, including new roads and mass transit projects. On Tuesday, the state's six-year plan is expected to include funding for a mix of projects, from the creation of an east-west Red Line in Baltimore's metro system to substantial repairs to aging bridges and highways that have deteriorated through consecutive years of funding shortages.During the fight over the gas tax, intended to shore up a depleted Transportation Trust Fund, many Democrats expressed support for mass transit projects, and O'Malley said the new funding stream will allow the state to "build a 21st century transportation network." Senate Republicans, who unanimously voted against the legislation, criticized the plan as a statewide tax to pay for mass transit systems that will serve a small percentage of residents.State officials in Maryland have long advocated for smart growth in the state, including the creation of "transit-oriented" developments in areas already served by existing mass transit. They have also publicly stressed a balance between traditional highway construction and modern, mass transit options."There has to be a happy medium. We have to take care of the roads we have," said Del. James E. Malone, Jr., a Baltmini storagemore County Democrat and chair of the House transportation subcommittee. "But I'm a big fan of, 'If you build it, they will ride it.'"Malone pointed to the recent expansion of the MARC train station in Halethorpe, which is in his district, as a perfect example."You won't believe how many people are moving into our district, are buying houses, for one reason and one reason only: They ride the Halethorpe MARC train," he said.Still, given the backlog of highway projects already beyond due, an across-the-board shift away from driving and toward public transit, biking and walkability remains a long way away, some said."People may not be driving as far, but they're still out there on the roads," said Sen. James "Ed" DeGrange, an Anne Arundel County Democrat who chairs the Senate's transportation budget subcommittee. "I don't think the emphasis is as much going to be on the mass transit side, when it's so expensive, because we have to fix the roadways."A spokeswoman for O'Malley referred all questions to James Smith, the state's transportation secretary, but Smith could not be reached for comment.Robert Puentes, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution's Metropolitan Policy Program, says roads will remain an important component to any state's transportation infrastructure. But declining or stalled travel on state roads, even as the state's population continues to grow, is "unprecedented" historically, and should be a wake-up call for planners.The trend is too strong to be caused simply by the economy, even if the economy is a major factor, he said. Unlike driving drops during the oil crisis in the 1970s, the current declines have been more prolonged and less correlated with the recession, he said. And the fact that similar drops are occurring in Europe, Canada and developed parts of Asia is also an indication that the trend is here to stay."This is definitely real and it's definitely happening, and that's what's new," he said. "This isn't a blip like we saw in the 1970s or other points, where there was a little dip and then we went back to where we were."Puentes said some big cities are already confronting the trend, with cities like Washington expanding bike-share programs and cities like Baltimore launching circulator bus routes. But states are behind the curve, he said."The drops in driving are dramatic, they're unprecedented, yet we still model our transportation investments on older trends, extrapolating them out without any understanding that things are changing fundamentally," Puentes said.Todd Lang, director of transportation planning at the Baltimore Metropolitan Council, said officials are always thinking about "how changing trends in the traveling public should be reflected in the different kinds of investments they make."And, his organization, which analyzes transportation issues on behalf of elected officials in the major jurisdictions that make up the greater Baltimore region, has noticed the shift away from driving among younger people.Still, driving remains the dominant mode of transportation in the state by a huge margin, he said.Since 2003, the percentage of commuters who drive to work alone has decreased, and percentages of commuters who take public transit, walk, and bike to work -- or who work from home -- have all increased, but only minimally.Those who drive alone went from 75.2 percent of commuters in 2003 to 73.3 percent in 2011, while transit riders rose from 8.1 percent to 9.2 percent, a state study shows. During the same time period, percentage increases were seen for those who work from home (3.1 to 4.1 percent); who walk (2 to 2.3 percent); and who bike (0.2 to 0.3 percent).Hiroyuki Iseki, an assistant professor of urban studies and planning at the University of Maryland, College Park's National Center for Smart Growth, said those numbers are low but reflect potential."As people move toward less driving, we certainly would like to put more funding into other modes of travel," he said. "As we provide the alternative modes of travel to driving, then more people are inclined to live in particular areas. They seek the public transit service, they seek the bicycle access."With that shift comes environmental benefits, health benefits for the more active residents, and economic benefits for low-income residents who suddenly have cheaper travel options.And, of course, there's just the convenience, said Stefanie Trop, a 27-year-old resident of Butcher's Hill, who walks about 7 minutes to Johns Hopkins University's campus everyday, where she is an immunology doctoral student.Trop has a car, but said moving to within walking distance of Hopkins was one of her "best life decisions." All her friends live and work in the city, too. Commutes just don't make sense, she said."Specific to Baltimore and my neighborhood, it's not always the most pleasant walk, it's not very scenic and you can't pick any route you want to," she said. "But it's quick and easy."krector@baltsun.comtwitter.com/rectorsunBy the numbers9,646 -- Per capita vehicle miles in Maryland in 20114.1 -- Percent decrease in vehicle miles per capita, 2007 to 201115 -- Average percent increase in vehicle miles every five years, 1980 to 20050.7 -- Percent decline in vehicle miles, 2005 to 201073.3 -- Percent who drove to work alone in 201175.2 -- Percent who drove to work alone in 20039.2 -- Percent who rode public transit in 20118.1 -- Percent who rode public transit in 2003Copyright: ___ (c)2013 The Baltimore Sun Visit The Baltimore Sun at .baltimoresun.com Distributed by MCT Information Servicesself storage